SanDisk (SNDK) surged 251% in revenue to $5.95B as Seagate (STX) nearly quadrupled free cash flow to $953M, both crediting AI data creation.
Seagate offers durable 47% gross margins with nearline capacity committed through mid-2026, while SanDisk trades at a demanding 60x P/E with NAND pricing risk.
Both stocks have pulled back sharply, with SNDK down 23% and STX off 19% over the past month, pointing to elevated expectations already baked into prices.
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SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) and Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX) just delivered blockbuster March quarter results, and both credit the same force: AI data creation.
One sells NAND flash for high-speed inference. The other sells nearline HDDs that warehouse petabytes cheaply. Comparing them now shows how storage is splitting into two distinct AI supply chains.
SanDisk posted $5.95 billion in revenue, a 251% jump, with Datacenter alone surging 645% year over year to $1.467 billion. Gross margin swung to 78.4% from 22.5% a year ago, a move that only makes sense when NAND pricing is genuinely scarce. CEO David Goeckeler called it "a fundamental inflection point" tied to BiCS8 flash and High Bandwidth Flash for AI inference.
Seagate's numbers look calmer but no less structural. Revenue reached $3.11 billion, up 44.1%, with non-GAAP gross margin hitting 47%. Free cash flow leapt to $953 million from $216 million. Dave Mosley framed the quarter as "a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation." The Mozaic HAMR platform is now qualified with five of the world's largest cloud customers.
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BiCS8 NAND, High Bandwidth Flash
Multi-year NBM firm commitments
Build-to-order, capacity spoken for
Debt paydown, convert dilution risk
NAND pricing swings, Kioxia reliance
HDD cyclicality, tariff exposure
SanDisk is locking hyperscalers into five New Business Model agreements with firm financial commitments, trying to convert a historically brutal commodity cycle into something that looks like a subscription.
Seagate is doing the opposite in spirit: leaning on decades of areal density expertise to be the cheapest place to park an exabyte. Mosley noted nearline capacity is committed through mid-calendar 2026, which is the sort of visibility HDD investors rarely get.
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