Real yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are at their highest levels since before the Covid pandemic, according to Mark Hulbert's July 2026 MarketWatch analysis.
He argues that current levels may compress if inflation expectations fall or the Federal Reserve cuts rates, narrowing the window to lock in a generous payout.
A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, or TIPS, differs from a traditional Treasury in one key way. Unlike a nominal bond that pays a fixed interest rate, a TIPS adjusts its principal value in step with the Consumer Price Index every month.
If inflation rises 3% over a year, the principal you hold rises by 3% as well, and your interest payments grow along with it.
The 10-year TIPS real yield recently stood at about 2.1%, more than double the 10-year average of 0.9%, MarketWatch reported. The one-year real yield has been even more striking at 2.2%, compared with a decade average of just 0.3%, the report noted.
As of the July 17, 2026 market close, TIPS real yields stood at 2.01% at five years, 2.31% at 10 years, and 2.87% at 30 years, according to the U.S. Treasury's Daily Par Real Yield Curve Rates.
Elevated yields span the maturity spectrum from five to 30 years, giving investors multiple entry points.
A 30-year TIPS ladder now produces a guaranteed inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of about 4.9% per year, with a real yield of 2.7% annualized, MarketWatch reported.
Earlier this decade, the comparable withdrawal rate was only slightly above 4%, the report noted.
TIPS ladders now outperform traditional retirement withdrawal benchmarks, Wealth Logic founder Allan Roth wrote for ETF.com.
I've challenged the financial services industry to solve the safe withdrawal rate, as a 30-year TIPS ladder now produces a 4.5% inflation-adjusted cash flow. iShares and LifeX have made progress…
Morningstar research published in 2026 reinforced those findings, concluding that a 30-year TIPS ladder supports an inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4.8%, compared with 3.9% for the highest-performing traditional portfolio strategy the firm studied.
The Cleveland Fed's inflation expectations model draws on Treasury yields, Consumer Price Index data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures to project inflation over horizons from one to 30 years, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland explained.
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