US Live Cattle markets (boxed beef, cash, futures) are showing signs of having reached a Tipping Point, what could be considered a long-term bearish development.
On the other hand, the Feeder Cattle futures market has seen a Rubber Band Disposition develop, what could be considered a bullish outlook this time around.
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Behind it all we have a US administration determined to wreck US prices by the time mid-term elections roll around this coming fall.
As Forrest Gump told us, "Shrimping is tough." The same could be said for the US cattle/beef industry, particularly after it fell into the crosshairs of the US president late in 2025. Recall at the time he, and his regime, had lost popularity due to the high price of beef at the meat counter. The US president demanded the US cattle industry increase supplies immediately, something that was both economically and biologically unfeasible. That didn't matter, though. Since the industry had stood up to his dictates, his actions regarding US cattle and beef have been designed to destroy the industry, similar to what he did to US soybeans with his trade war with China that began in January 2018. Given this, it is within reason to question much of what we hear and see particularly when it doesn't match with what the market(s) is (are) showing us.
Recently, I've been talking both sides – bearish and bullish – about cattle markets. There are a couple good reasons for this: First, there are two distinct markets, live cattle and feeder cattle, and second, what I see is what I see. I'm not making it up, though I am questioning my analytical eyesight. Let's start with live cattle.
The last couple years, I've questioned how long US consumer demand could continue to provide support given the meteoric rise in price beef prices. In early September 2025, USDA reported choice beef at $416, a new all-time high. Something to keep in mind at this point: USDA Secretary Rollins is nothing but a cheerleader for the US president, and the latter demanded from the former that BEEF PRICES MUST COME DOWN. Conveniently enough, those daily boxed beef prices reported by USDA did indeed start coming down. Immediately. The chain of events was supposed to be:
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