Economic resilience is probably something most Americans would welcome.
We're seeing that consumer spending is still growing, wage gains haven't gone away, and corporate dealmaking is showing fresh momentum. Those trends point to a country that is successfully blowing past the recent inflation shock.
However, in an exclusive interview with CBS News' "Face the Nation," Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees something more troubling beneath the surface.
The economy is arguably holding its own, but the relief households expected hasn't followed. Food, housing, and fuel costs remain painful, while the strongest spending growth continues to come from consumers with the greatest financial cushions.
For investors and households, the next phase could look very different from the soft landing many had anticipated.
Economic growth isn't disappearing, but interestingly, that relentless pace of expansion might compel an economic response few people are prepared for.
Moynihan's big concern is that inflation will likely remain sticky enough to prevent the relief everyone is expecting.
"It's drifting down, and it's drifting down slower than people would like it," he said, pointing to continued pressure from housing, food, fuel, and other essential costs.
The problem extends beyond prices at the pump.
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Moynihan said businesses are worried about "the cost of goods that's coming through the pipeline," as higher energy costs feed into plastics, materials, manufacturing, and transportation.
In effect, that has complicated the economic outlook.
The delayed pass-through helps to explain why Bank of America's economists see "inflation staying higher all the way into 2027 and 2028."
Moreover, that forecast led to a steep reversal in the bank's interest-rate outlook.
Moynihan said that six months ago, the team expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Now, the team says, "our belief is we'll raise rates" to contain consistent inflation.
He indicated that the tightening cycle would likely begin "more towards the end of the year," with additional increases potentially extending into next year.
For perspective, as of its June 2026 outlook, I reported that BofA expects three quarter-point Fed rate hikes, in September, October, and December 2026, totaling 0.75 points.
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