Nebius holds $46 billion in signed contracts with Microsoft and Meta, anchoring its path to $33 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
Applying standard cloud multiples to Wolfe Research's $21 billion EBITDA forecast implies Nebius could reach an enterprise value of between $315 billion and $420 billion by 2030.
Nebius's non-hyperscaler cloud pipeline tripled in one quarter while its $643 million Eigen AI acquisition targets higher-margin inference workloads.
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Artificial intelligence is creating a new industrial buildout unlike anything investors have seen in decades. Hyperscalers are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers, chips, and power infrastructure because AI workloads require an entirely new computing backbone. The biggest question is shifting from whether AI demand exists to which companies will capture the economic value created by that demand.
That opportunity has pushed investors to search beyond the established hyperscalers for the next generation of AI infrastructure winners. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) could be the one to achieve it.
Respected independent research firm Wolfe Research believes Nebius could generate $34 billion in revenue and $21 billion in EBITDA by 2030. That sounds ambitious, but it is not too far off from Nebius's own forecasts, as it has the kind of contracted demand that most early-stage infrastructure companies can only hope to secure.
The company's own long-range model projects:
That means Nebius expects revenue to compound at roughly 80% annually from FY26 through FY30 before slowing to a more mature growth rate.
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Mature cloud businesses at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) trade at roughly 15 to 20 times EBITDA once their cloud operations become established. If Nebius reaches Wolfe Research's $21 billion EBITDA forecast and receives even the lower end of that multiple range, the math looks like this:
That estimate does not include any growth beyond 2030 or a scarcity premium for owning one of the few independent AI infrastructure platforms operating at global scale. If Nebius continues expanding after 2030 and pushes revenue toward $60 billion to $70 billion, a trillion-dollar valuation starts looking plausible.
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