Khing Oei, a former Goldman Sachs credit investor, says the market has Strategy's STRC preferred stock priced wrong. His math says it is worth about $96. It trades near $85.
Oei spent 25 years valuing risky debt at Goldman Sachs and hedge funds. He shared his STRC model in a recent lengthy discussion.
STRC pays a 12% dividend. Divide that by today's discounted price and you get a yield above 14%. That number is everywhere. Oei says it is wrong.
Here is the problem. That math assumes STRC pays out forever, no matter what. STRC promises no such thing. It never matures and never has to repay its $100 face value, known as par. It pays only while MicroStrategy can afford it.
The shares crashed 25% below par during June's Bitcoin selloff. That is what made the yield look so juicy.
"That experience leaves you with a simple instinct: never value a stream by dividing this year's coupon by today's price," Oei wrote in his analysis.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
So he values STRC like a bond. Count the cash it will actually pay out, and nothing more. Strategy's dashboard showed 843,775 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $54 billion, plus $3 billion in cash. Debt and senior preferred shares claim $8 billion of that first. STRC's $10.5 billion comes next.
Strip out the senior claims and $50.2 billion backs the preferred shares. The dividend bill runs $1.73 billion a year.
That produces two striking numbers. Bitcoin only needs to grow 3.4% a year and the dividends never stop. If Bitcoin stays flat forever, the money still lasts 29 years.
Value those 29 years of payments at a 12% discount rate and STRC is worth $96.30. BeInCrypto checked the math. It holds.
The market pays $85.29. That price only buys 17 years of dividends. Oei thinks that is too gloomy, since STRF, the safer Strategy share above STRC, yields just 10.4%.
That gap between $85 and $96 is the 13% mispricing. It carries a sharp implication. If Oei is right, buyers collect the 14% yield while the price climbs toward fair value. If the market is right, the discount is a warning that the dividend may one day stop.
Some buyers seem to agree with Oei. A BitcoinTreasuries survey found over half of holders bought the dip below par.
Bitcoin's price does most of the work. Oei's table puts STRC back at $100 if Bitcoin reaches $80,000. At $40,000, it drops to $58.
MicroStrategy holds levers too. STRC listed in July 2025 at $90 with a 9% dividend. The board has raised the rate again and again, now 12%, to pull the price toward par.
Source: Yahoo Finance Top News — This article was automatically imported from the source. Read full article at original source →
