Palantir (PLTR) delivered 85% revenue growth and eight straight earnings beats, yet shares still trade 23% below our BUY target.
Palantir's 148x P/E looks extreme versus NVIDIA (NVDA) at 33x but reasonable against AMD (AMD) at 188x, given recurring software margins.
CEO Alex Karp warned Palantir cannot meet U.S. demand, with net dollar retention at 150% and remaining deal value at $11.8 billion.
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Few stocks in this market have been as polarizing as Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR). Bears have called it overvalued at every turn, yet the company keeps delivering. After eight straight earnings beats and a 10-point full-year guidance raise, we are updating our view.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Palantir is $163.30, implying 23.36% upside from $132.38. We rate shares a buy.
Palantir shares are down 25.52% year to date and 14.03% over the past year, trading 12% below the 52-week high of $207.52.
This drawdown occurred against a Q1 2026 report that was extraordinary. Revenue hit $1.633 billion, up 84.7% year-over-year, U.S. commercial jumped 133%, and adjusted EPS of $0.33 beat consensus by 18.07%, the eighth consecutive beat.
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 to $7.662 billion, a 10-point acceleration in growth. Free cash flow of $924.63 million now exceeds the entire Q1 2025 revenue line. Rackspace expanded its AI infrastructure partnership with Palantir in mid-July, validating the enterprise AIP narrative.
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The bull case rests on demand outrunning supply. CEO Alex Karp said on the Q1 call, "Our biggest problem currently in the U.S. is that we just cannot meet demand." Net dollar retention hit 150%, remaining deal value reached $11.8 billion, and the Rule of 40 score landed at 145%.
Wall Street consensus target sits at $183.12 with 20 Buy ratings against 2 Sells. Our bull scenario models $203.91 within a year if AIP adoption compounds.
The bear case begins with valuation. Palantir trades at a 148x trailing P/E and 90x forward earnings, multiples that leave no room for a stumble. Director Alexander Moore sold over $2.1 million in stock on July 15, 2026, with a planned sale of 48,000 additional shares. Competitors like BigBear.ai position model-agnostic platforms as a flexibility alternative.
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