As we approach Tesla's (TSLA) Q2 earnings on July 22, Tesla shareholders are waiting for an update on a product that is likely to drive the company's bull thesis in the future. While the focus has been on the deliveries and production numbers over the past decade, it is slowly shifting to a product CEO Elon Musk promised to deliver good news on by July.
We're now past the halfway mark, and there is still no update on that front. I'm referring to Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus. On the Q1 earnings call, Elon Musk had said that Optimus production would begin in July. This was just an approximation, so no update on this front doesn't necessarily mean bad news. In fact, Musk himself said that the 2026 production rate would be impossible to predict. And there are good reasons for that. Tesla's main line of business, automotive manufacturing, has enjoyed manufacturing progress for over a century now. Factories have perfected building parts that go into each vehicle. For a humanoid robot, such history does not exist. Therefore, for a company to ramp up production is no easy task.
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The upcoming earnings call may be the point at which the gap between Musk's ambitious talk and the actual output could start closing. Any update on production beginning in July or August would be positive for the stock and likely followed by a Generation 3 reveal as well.
Tesla had reportedly informed its suppliers that it will need 1000 components per week by September, and up to 2500 per week by year-end. The disclosure did not come directly from Tesla, but even if a rumor, it could be linked to some progress on the supply chain front. The Q2 earnings report will likely confirm or deny these, and we will have more clarity, but investors are clear about one thing: the future path of the stock will not be determined by the delivery numbers. Rather, it will be the progress on the autonomy front via humanoid robots and robotaxis that will drive the company's bull thesis.
Tesla is a technology company that specializes in electric vehicles, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and robotics. Its product portfolio includes electric vehicles such as Model 3 and Model Y, energy products such as Powerwall and Megapack, and AI initiatives including Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi service, and the Optimus humanoid robot. Founded in 2003, the company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
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