Gas prices in the United States climbed back to $4 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA, as the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks and the threat of prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz intensified. AAA data put the national average at $4.003 per gallon, a jump of about 13 cents versus seven days prior and more than 86 cents above the same date last year.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose above $90 a barrel on Monday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was around $84 a barrel.
Diesel has followed regular gasoline upward, hitting $5.11 a gallon by Monday, a gain of about 23 cents over the prior week, according to the New York Times.
The single national figure conceals sharp regional variation. Motorists across much of the South are paying closer to $3.60, while those in California contend with prices near $5.50 a gallon, according to the New York Times.
As prices fell below $4 a gallon in mid-June after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities, analysts warned that depleted global fuel stockpiles and elevated summer driving demand could push prices higher again. That interim agreement did not hold. Washington this week reimposed a naval blockade around Iranian ports in the strait — through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil and gas transits — effectively shutting down most vessel traffic and driving energy prices higher, according to the New York Times. Gas prices had peaked at $4.56 a gallon in May before gradually retreating.
Beyond the oil supply shock, additional factors are squeezing fuel markets. American refineries are churning through crude at near-maximum rates while holding thin fuel stockpiles, a combination that sustains elevated pump prices even during periods of softer crude, according to Bloomberg. Reduced output from Russian refineries following Ukrainian strikes, combined with limited American import volumes, have added further upward pressure on fuel costs, Bloomberg reported.
The return to $4 gas adds a political dimension for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections. The opposition party has made household affordability a centerpiece of its midterm messaging, treating pump prices as one of its sharpest lines of attack. Trump told reporters last week: "Prices are coming way down, and we're doing a great job. And remember that for the midterms," according to the New York Times.
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