Giverny Capital Asset Management, LLC, an investment management company, recently published its second-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The model portfolio returned 13.70% this quarter, compared to the S&P 500's 15.20% return. YTD, the portfolio gained 5.89%, while the index increased by 10.21%. The long-term link between stock appreciation and earnings growth is strong; Benjamin Graham described the market as a "voting machine" in the short term and a "weighing machine" in the long term. Despite the S&P 500's 10.2% rise in the first half of the year, 210 stocks lost value, indicating market anomalies. High-quality earnings compounders that benefit from AI capabilities are likely to maintain their competitive edge. Recently, the market has increasingly chased momentum. Tech giants are taking advantage of the optimism of investors amid fears of an AI bubble. Despite strong profit margins, reliance on "moonshot" investments raises sustainability concerns. The author recommends investing in both emerging tech leaders and established firms. In addition, please check the Strategy's top five holdings to know its best picks in 2026.
In its Q2 2026 investor letter, Giverny Capital Asset Management highlighted The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR). The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) is a leading auto insurer in the United States offering personal autos and special lines products. On July 20, 2026, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) closed at $212.23 per share. The one-month return of The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) was -1.60%, and its shares lost 14.21% over the past 52 weeks. The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) has a market capitalization of $123.39 billion.
Giverny Capital Asset Management stated the following regarding The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) in its Q2 2026 investor update:
"Roughly 40% of the Index outperforming the average and 60% underperforming is not so unusual, but two-thirds of that lagging group underperforming by more than 10 percentage points seems like a lot. Even this level of dispersion might make sense if most of the earnings growth in the Index was concentrated in the 200 stocks that were up double digits. This is not the case. We own Index constituents such as Charles Schwab, JP Morgan, Mastercard and The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) that continue to grow their earnings per share at healthy rates and in some cases at higher rates than usual, but whose stock prices are lagging.
The consensus of Wall Street analysts says Progressive will report lower earnings this year than last, as auto insurance rates are in decline after years of rate inflation. Progressive's growth rate is indeed slowing, but for the first half of 2026 its EPS rose 7%. Despite this, the share price dropped 4% for the first half of the year. We added to our position in June. For the first time in years, Progressive has been buying back its stock."
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